I think Tsonga here is clear favorite, Nadal played two difficult matches and only luck helped him to advance. He has no skills to play on indoor hard yet, his shots are weak and not flat, Nadal simply the great defencive claycourtier, but it is not enough to win on indoors against experienced powerplayers. So Tsonga beated him when Nadal was in better form, so he must do it again. Few chances for spaniard imo.